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            星火太陽能和你一起了解更多太陽能資訊

            微型逆變器行業研究報告:滲透率提升,需求爆發

            返回列表 來源: 行業報告研究院 發布日期: 2022.11.28 瀏覽次數:

            、微逆優勢:安全性高、發電增益高、靈活性高



            光伏逆變器的主要作用為實現電能的轉換,將光伏組件產生的直流電轉化為電網傳輸和 用戶使用的交流電,是光伏系統的組成要素之一。根據技術路徑不同,光伏逆變器主要 包括集中式逆變器、組串式逆變器和微型逆變器。從應用場景來看,微型逆變器通常適用于分布式發電系統,常用于戶用屋頂和工商業屋頂等場景;集中式逆變器主要用于集 中式發電系統,常用于大面積且光照強烈的場景,如荒漠、山地等;組串式逆變器功率 范圍較廣,兼容分布式和集中式發電場景。


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            和其他產品相比,微型逆變器具備更高的安全性、更高的發電增益、以及更靈活的安裝 方式。為了實現組件級關斷,與微型逆變器形成互補的效果的還有“組串式逆變器+關斷 器”和“組串式逆變器+優化器”產品,微逆與這些產品統稱為組件級電力電子(MLPE)。與其他兩種產品相比,微型逆變器最明顯的優勢是具有直流電壓低的特點,能消除發電 過程中的火災風險。但目前微逆成本較高,價格方面存在劣勢。


            二、需求端:安規標準提升+價格下降,微逆滲透率將快速提升


            (一)行業:初始成本下降+發電效率提升,光伏成為最便宜的能源


            光伏系統成本持續下降,發電效率不斷提升。目前,光伏發電已經基本實現與火電平價。CPIA數據顯示,2022年地面電站的初始成本預計下降為3.93元/W,較2016年下降46%;工商業分布式電站初始投資成本預計為 3.53 元/W,較 2017 年下降 58%。初始成本和效 率提升帶動光伏發電的LCOE迅速下降。LAZRD 數據顯示,2009-2021年,光伏發電LCOE 累計下降 90%,達到 36 美元/MWh,是成本最低的能源方式。


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            光伏發電量當前占比較小。根據 BloombergNEF 測算,2022 年 3 月全球光伏累計裝機達 到 1TW。盡管光伏行業已經快速發展多年,但截至 2021 年底,全球光伏發電量占比約 為 5%,占比仍然較低。新能源替代趨勢強勁,光伏發電未來提升空間較大。目前中國、美國、歐盟等多個國家 和地區正在加速新能源替代,未來光伏發電量占比將持續提升。假設 2030/2050 年光伏 發電量占比提升至 23.7%/40%,預計光伏累計裝機將達到 6.8/18.7TW,到 2030/2050 年 光伏每年新增裝機平均增速將達到 22%/16%。


            Micro inverse advantages: high safety, high power generation gain, high flexibility

            The main function of photovoltaic inverter is to realize the conversion of electric energy, the direct current generated by photovoltaic modules into the power grid transmission and user use of alternating current, is one of the components of the photovoltaic system. According to different technology paths, photovoltaic inverters mainly include centralized inverters, group series inverters and micro inverters. In terms of application scenarios, micro inverters are usually suitable for distributed power generation systems, which are often used in domestic and commercial roofs. Centralized inverter is mainly used for collecting Chinese power generation system, often used in large area and intense lighting scene, such as desert, mountain, etc. Series inverters have a wide power range and are compatible with distributed and centralized power generation scenarios.

            The picture

            Compared with other products, micro inverters offer higher safety, higher generation gain, and more flexible installation. In order to realize component-level shut-off, there are also "group series inverter + shut-off" and "group series inverter + optimizer" products complementary to the micro inverter. Micro inverse and these products are collectively referred to as component level power electronics (MLPE). Compared with the other two products, the most obvious advantage of the micro inverter is that it has the characteristics of low DC voltage, which can eliminate the fire risk during the generation process. But at present, the cost of micro inverse is high and the price is inferior.

            Second, the demand side: safety standards increase + price decrease, micro inverse penetration rate will increase rapidly

            (I) Industry: initial cost reduction + power generation efficiency improvement, photovoltaic becomes the cheapest energy

            The cost of photovoltaic system continues to decrease, and the power generation efficiency continues to improve. At present, photovoltaic power generation has basically achieved parity with thermal power. CPIA data show that the initial cost of ground power stations is expected to decrease to 3.93 yuan /W in 2022, 46% lower than that in 2016. The initial investment cost of industrial and commercial distributed power stations is expected to be 3.53 yuan /W, which is 58% lower than that in 2017. The increase of initial cost and efficiency drives the rapid decline of LCOE of photovoltaic power generation. According to LAZRD data, the LCOE for PV has fallen by 90% cumulatively to $36 /MWh from 2009 to 2021, making it the lowest-cost form of energy.

            The picture

            Photovoltaic power generation currently accounts for a relatively small proportion. As measured by BloombergNEF, the cumulative installed PV capacity worldwide reached 1TW in March 2022. Although the PV industry has been developing rapidly for many years, the share of global PV generation at the end of 2021 is still low at about 5%. The trend of new energy substitution is strong, and there is a large room for future improvement of photovoltaic power generation. At present, China, the United States, the European Union and other countries and regions are accelerating the replacement of new energy, and the proportion of photovoltaic power generation will continue to increase in the future. Assuming that the proportion of photovoltaic power generation increases to 23.7%/40% in 2030/2050, it is expected that the cumulative installed photovoltaic capacity will reach 6.8/18.7TW, and the average annual growth rate of newly installed photovoltaic capacity will reach 22%/16% in 2030/2050.


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